Next Week’s Market Drivers:
China — M2 growth could moderate to 12.8%YoY in September due to falling
money multiplier and weak credit demand. CPI and PPI gap may have widened a
bit more on elevated pork prices and commodity price decline (Citi: Sep CPI
2.1%YoY; PPI -6.0%YoY).
India — We expect industrial production to improve to 4.9%YoY in Aug vs 4.2% last
month with a pick up seen in electricity output. We expect CPI inflation to rise to
4.5%YoY in Sep from 3.7% last month as base effect began to reverse and food
prices rose on monsoon concerns. We expect WPI inflation to remain in negative
territory for the 11th straight month at -4.2%YoY in Sep vs -4.9% last month even as
the base effect turns slightly unfavorable.
Indonesia — We expect the trade surplus to have improved in Sept (US$ 784mn)
amid an uptick in the prices of commodities such as palm oil and shrinkage in
machinery imports amid high exchange rate volatility. Meanwhile BI will likely
continue to hold its benchmark policy rates at current levels (Citi: Oct BI rate 7.50%;
FasBI rate 5.50%)
Korea — We expect jobless rate in Sep to decline by 0.2%p to 3.4%SA from a
month ago as service and construction sectors continued to accrue jobs. We now
change our call for a rate cut in Oct to later this year, in Dec at the earliest.
Malaysia — Aug industrial production likely increased 4.2% YoY (Jul: 6.1%) Sep
CPI likely slowed to 2.8%YoY.
Singapore — Advance estimates for 3Q GDP should come in at 1.7%YoY,
+2.0%QoQ SAAR despite weaknesses in manufacturing and construction. Barring
surprises from lumpy ships and pharma, we expect NODX to fall 2.5% YoY in Sep.
Our base case anticipates no change in MAS policy, but this is a close call.
(Source: Citi research)
No comments:
Post a Comment